Wehen Wiesbaden 1-2 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 23 Feb 2024

Wehen Wiesbaden
1-2 HT 1-1
Paderborn
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Wehen Wiesbaden vs Paderborn Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 27% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.92
1/2
9%
24.45
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
11%
6.22
X/2
11%
5.38
X/X
9%
5.27
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
17%
3.2
2/X
11%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wehen Wiesbaden v Paderborn — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wehen Wiesbaden EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
1.42/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.52
-25% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +0%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
262 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
17.9 Crosses 14.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Wehen Wiesbaden vs Paderborn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wehen Wiesbaden
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Paderborn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.91 xG 2.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
466 Passes 420
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.09.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 2-1 HT 0-1 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AL2
05.05.2018 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 0-0 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AL3
02.12.2017 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 4-1 HT 2-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL3
24.02.2017 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-0 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AL3
27.08.2016 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL3
11.05.2008 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2

Wehen Wiesbaden 1-2 Paderborn — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wehen Wiesbaden
1-2
AWAY Paderborn
0.63 xG 1.31
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
355 Passes 440
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wehen Wiesbaden vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn edged past Wehen Wiesbaden 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Paderborn found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Wehen Wiesbaden had 47% of the ball to Paderborn's 53%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.63 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Wehen Wiesbaden and 1.50 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Wehen Wiesbaden vs Paderborn?

Wehen Wiesbaden 1-2 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wehen Wiesbaden vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Wehen Wiesbaden 36%, draw 27%, Paderborn 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ Under 2.5
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