Moca 0-3 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-4 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
12.23
Draw
17%
6.26
Away
60%
1.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.63
Over Pick
61%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
19%
4.42
2-3
38%
1.89
4-5
32%
2.93
6+
11%
8.66
Value flag · 4-5 at 2.93 — our 32% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
12%
2/2
50%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
6%
+17.6pp
17%
Draw
13%
+3.4pp
60%
Away Win
81%
-21.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
34%
+4.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
66%
-4.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.7pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moca The Market 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC The Market 85%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
349 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 90%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moca
0-3
AWAY Nashville SC
0.31 xG 2.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
286 Passes 441
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
3 Box Touches 31
6 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Moca vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC ran out comfortable winners over Moca 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nashville SC as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Moca had 42% of the ball to Nashville SC's 58%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 0.31 to 2.20.

What was the final score of Moca vs Nashville SC?

Moca 0-3 Nashville SC in the CONCACAF Champions League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moca vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Moca 24%, draw 17%, Nashville SC 60%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nashville SC), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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