Nagoya Grampus 0-3 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
28%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.51
Over 2.5
37%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.21
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
5.61
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.0
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
5.15
X/2
11%
5.36
X/X
21%
3.53
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
11%
4.24
2/X
6%
14.35
Value flag · X/1 at 5.15 — our 21% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+4.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.6pp
28%
Away Win
33%
-5.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +9%
1.36/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.01
+3% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +39%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
13.9 Crosses 17.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.17 xG 0.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
294 Passes 301
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
06.09.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
13.08.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
14.05.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
26.06.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
17.04.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
0-3
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.38 xG 1.09
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
438 Passes 313
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers cruised past Nagoya Grampus 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nagoya Grampus at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 56% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 44%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.38 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 0.83 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima Antlers?

Nagoya Grampus 0-3 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 41%, draw 31%, Kashima Antlers 28%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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