Burnley U21 1-1 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 23 Feb 2026

Burnley U21
1-1 HT 1-0
Derby County U21
📅23/02/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
INGPL2 – 2025/2026

Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.0pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley U21 v Derby County U21 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley U21 EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Burnley U21 1-1 Derby County U21 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley U21
1-1
AWAY Derby County U21
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
294 Passes 327
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley U21 and Derby County U21 shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Burnley U21 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Burnley U21 had 48% of the ball to Derby County U21's 52%, shots finished 13-16.

What was the final score of Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?

Burnley U21 1-1 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 23/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burnley U21 46%, draw 23%, Derby County U21 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Burnley U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burnley U21) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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