Bavois 3-1 Lugano II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-5.2pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bavois EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano II EU Bookmakers 19%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
2.52/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.24/2.44
+16% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -83% / -13%
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bavois
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugano II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2 Corners 7
16.09.2023 Lugano II Lugano II 2-1 HT 2-1 Bavois İSV1Y
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bavois
3-1
AWAY Lugano II
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
14 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Bavois vs Lugano II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bavois beat Lugano II 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bavois as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bavois had 60% of the ball to Lugano II's 40%, shots finished 18-10.

What was the final score of Bavois vs Lugano II?

Bavois 3-1 Lugano II in the Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bavois vs Lugano II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bavois win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Bavois 59%, draw 19%, Lugano II 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bavois), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bavois) ✓ Over 2.5
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