New York Red Bulls 4-0 Inter Miami — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
14%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.61
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
14%
4.51
X/2
13%
7.43
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
8%
5.21
2/X
6%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.28/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.38
-15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.8 Crosses 13.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Inter Miami
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.86 xG 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
314 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-2 HT 0-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
01.06.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-1 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
28.08.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 1-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
23.05.2022 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-0 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
10.10.2021 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-0 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
18.09.2021 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-4 HT 0-2 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
4-0
AWAY Inter Miami
1.23 xG 0.26
31% Ball Possession 69%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
228 Passes 590
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls ran out comfortable winners over Inter Miami 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 31% of the ball to Inter Miami's 69%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.23 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for New York Red Bulls and 0.83 for Inter Miami.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?

New York Red Bulls 4-0 Inter Miami in the USA - Major League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 47%, draw 25%, Inter Miami 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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