Köln (K) 3-4 Nürnberg (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Women's Bundesliga, 23 Mar 2024

Köln (K)
3-4 HT 0-1
Nürnberg (K)
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Germany - Women's Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Köln (K) vs Nürnberg (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.61
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
58%
-0.4pp
19%
Draw
24%
-4.9pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln (K) v Nürnberg (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln (K) EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg (K) EU Bookmakers 21%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +61% / +61%
4.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+56% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
– Crosses 13.0
– Yellow Cards 5.0

Köln (K) 3-4 Nürnberg (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln (K)
3-4
AWAY Nürnberg (K)
3.27 xG 2.07
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 15
13 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 3
262 Passes 102
69% Pass Accuracy 45%
38 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Köln (K) vs Nürnberg (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nürnberg (K) squeezed past Köln (K) 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Köln (K) at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Köln (K) had 64% of the ball to Nürnberg (K)'s 36%, shots finished 23-15, expected goals 3.27 to 2.07 — the balance of chances actually favoured Köln (K).

What was the final score of Köln (K) vs Nürnberg (K)?

Köln (K) 3-4 Nürnberg (K) in the Germany - Women's Bundesliga on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln (K) vs Nürnberg (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Köln (K) 58%, draw 19%, Nürnberg (K) 23%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Köln (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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