UCV 1-0 Portuguesa FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.0pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCV EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Portuguesa FC EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.45/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.09
-3% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.6 Crosses 13.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCV
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Portuguesa FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.30 xG 0.94
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
316 Passes 287
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 7
24 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2023 UCV UCV 0-1 HT 0-1 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC VEN
17.04.2023 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC 2-0 HT 1-0 UCV UCV VEN
21.08.2022 UCV UCV 2-0 HT 0-0 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC VEN
04.04.2022 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC 0-0 HT 0-0 UCV UCV VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCV
1-0
AWAY Portuguesa FC
1.02 xG 0.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 0
288 Passes 262
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 3
29 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UCV vs Portuguesa FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCV nicked a narrow win over Portuguesa FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had UCV as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, UCV had 52% of the ball to Portuguesa FC's 48%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.02 to 0.08.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Portuguesa FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for UCV and 0.75 for Portuguesa FC.

What was the final score of UCV vs Portuguesa FC?

UCV 1-0 Portuguesa FC in the Venezuela - Premier League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCV vs Portuguesa FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCV win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split UCV 41%, draw 29%, Portuguesa FC 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UCV), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UCV) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
VEN More Venezuela - Premier League
23 Mar 2024
23:00 Metropolitanos vs Rayo Zuliano Analysis →