Kagoshima United 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Giravanz Kitakyushu EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.64/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.24
+16% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses 16.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Giravanz Kitakyushu
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-1 HT 0-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP3
21.05.2023 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 2-2 HT 1-1 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JPK
04.05.2023 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 2-0 HT 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JAP3
19.09.2022 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-0 HT 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JAP3
02.07.2022 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-2 HT 1-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP3
22.05.2022 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 3-1 HT 2-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
1-0
AWAY Giravanz Kitakyushu
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 2
2 Shots on Target 0
14 Corners 3
191 Passes 209
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Giravanz Kitakyushu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United squeezed past Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kagoshima United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 45% of the ball to Giravanz Kitakyushu's 55%, shots finished 16-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kagoshima United had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kagoshima United and 0.83 for Giravanz Kitakyushu.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

Kagoshima United 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu in the Japan - J3 League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 41%, draw 27%, Giravanz Kitakyushu 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kagoshima United) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✗ BTTS Yes
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