Colchester 1-4 Doncaster Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 23 Apr 2024

Colchester
1-4 HT 1-2
Doncaster Rovers
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Colchester vs Doncaster Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.35
1/2
6%
23.6
1/X
10%
13.9
X/1
10%
7.43
X/2
18%
4.47
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.63
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
45%
Away Win
48%
-3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Colchester v Doncaster Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 52%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.17/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/0.91
-2% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
254 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 76%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.2 Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards –

Colchester vs Doncaster Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.17 xG 1.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
221 Passes 279
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 3-1 HT 1-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
29.04.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
19.11.2022 Colchester Colchester 3-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
14.04.2017 Colchester Colchester 1-1 HT 1-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
15.10.2016 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
25.03.2016 Colchester Colchester 4-1 HT 0-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1

Colchester 1-4 Doncaster Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
1-4
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
0.67 xG 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 2
322 Passes 265
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Doncaster Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers swept aside Colchester 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Doncaster Rovers as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Colchester had 55% of the ball to Doncaster Rovers's 45%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.67 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Doncaster Rovers led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Colchester and 1.17 for Doncaster Rovers.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Doncaster Rovers?

Colchester 1-4 Doncaster Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Doncaster Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Colchester 28%, draw 27%, Doncaster Rovers 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Doncaster Rovers), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
23 Apr 2024
21:45 Barrow vs Bradford City Analysis →