Lazio 2-1 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 23 Apr 2024

📅23/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.52
Over
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.28
2-3
39%
1.79
4-5
18%
5.36
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.3
X/1
13%
5.31
X/2
15%
5.2
X/X
15%
3.64
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
12%
4.01
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+1.4pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.2pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 38%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.54/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.75
-11% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
11.9 Crosses 14.4
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Juventus
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.70 xG 1.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
527 Passes 340
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.04.2024 Juventus Juventus 2-0 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTK
30.03.2024 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
16.09.2023 Juventus Juventus 3-1 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
08.04.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-1 HT 1-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
02.02.2023 Juventus Juventus 1-0 HT 1-0 Lazio Lazio İTK
13.11.2022 Juventus Juventus 3-0 HT 1-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
2-1
AWAY Juventus
0.57 xG 1.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
563 Passes 391
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio edged past Juventus 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 32% — and on the day Lazio made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 57% of the ball to Juventus's 43%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.57 to 1.44 — the balance of chances actually favoured Juventus.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventus led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lazio and 1.67 for Juventus.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Juventus?

Lazio 2-1 Juventus in the Italy - Cup on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lazio 37%, draw 32%, Juventus 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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