Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 Al Ain — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 23 Apr 2024

📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.29
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
23%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
9.0
2-3 Goals
37%
2.43
4-5 Goals
29%
2.35
6+ Goals
13%
3.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.45
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.2
X/1
24%
3.85
X/2
11%
19.85
X/X
8%
10.4
2/1
5%
17.85
2/2
9%
12.5
2/X
6%
20.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
73%
-16.0pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.8pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+12.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
24%
+17.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
76%
-17.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ain EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.76/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/3.08
-13% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +145% / -26%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
443 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
20.1 Crosses 16.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Al Ain
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 1.38
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
369 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.04.2024 Al Ain Al Ain 4-2 HT 3-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
06.05.2019 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
05.03.2019 Al Ain Al Ain 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
02.04.2018 Al Ain Al Ain 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
13.02.2018 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
11.09.2017 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 HT 2-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
2-1
AWAY Al Ain
2.89 xG 0.57
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
398 Passes 178
78% Pass Accuracy 65%
41 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ain
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh squeezed past Al Ain 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Hilal Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 66% of the ball to Al Ain's 34%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.89 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Hilal Riyadh's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Hilal Riyadh and 1.00 for Al Ain.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ain?

Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 Al Ain in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ain?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 57%, draw 20%, Al Ain 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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