Liepaja 0-1 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 23 Apr 2024

📅23/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.7pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+7.3pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.68/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.69
-11% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
25.7 Crosses 10.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FS Jelgava
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.88 xG 1.52
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
358 Passes 162
77% Pass Accuracy 60%
39 Box Touches 19
34 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.10.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
21.07.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 3-2 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
22.05.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.04.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 3-2 HT 1-2 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
12.09.2020 Liepaja Liepaja 3-1 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
22.07.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-5 HT 0-3 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
0-1
AWAY FS Jelgava
0.56 xG 1.72
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
326 Passes 237
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava nicked a narrow win over Liepaja 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Liepaja at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liepaja had 57% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 43%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.56 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Liepaja and 1.67 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?

Liepaja 0-1 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 43%, draw 30%, FS Jelgava 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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