Paksi SE 2-1 Kisvarda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - Cup, 23 Apr 2024

📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
35%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.93 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
54%
-13.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
34%
Away Win
22%
+12.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 25%
-67% / -67% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+22% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
293 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paksi SE
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kisvarda
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
3.12 xG 1.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
188 Passes 251
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Kisvarda Kisvarda 0-1 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
29.10.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-1 HT 2-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
23.04.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
28.01.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-2 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
31.08.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-3 HT 0-2 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
08.05.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-1 HT 0-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paksi SE
2-1
AWAY Kisvarda
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Paksi SE vs Kisvarda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE edged past Kisvarda 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 34% — and on the day Paksi SE made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Paksi SE had 52% of the ball to Kisvarda's 48%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Paksi SE and 1.17 for Kisvarda.

What was the final score of Paksi SE vs Kisvarda?

Paksi SE 2-1 Kisvarda in the Hungary - Cup on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paksi SE vs Kisvarda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Paksi SE 40%, draw 25%, Kisvarda 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paksi SE) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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