Kisvarda 0-1 Paksi SE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 28% vs market 20.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 50%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -15%
1.26/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.79
-11% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -46%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
289 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 79%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
25.2 Crosses 27.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kisvarda
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Paksi SE
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.77 xG 3.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
256 Passes 190
70% Pass Accuracy 66%
15 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-1 HT 2-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
23.04.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
28.01.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-2 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
31.08.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-3 HT 0-2 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
08.05.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-1 HT 0-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
19.02.2022 Kisvarda Kisvarda 3-3 HT 2-2 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kisvarda
0-1
AWAY Paksi SE
1.60 xG 2.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
246 Passes 187
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 36
29 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kisvarda vs Paksi SE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE squeezed past Kisvarda 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paksi SE as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kisvarda had 56% of the ball to Paksi SE's 44%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.60 to 2.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paksi SE's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kisvarda and 1.83 for Paksi SE.

What was the final score of Kisvarda vs Paksi SE?

Kisvarda 0-1 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kisvarda vs Paksi SE?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kisvarda 32%, draw 27%, Paksi SE 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paksi SE), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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