Benfica 4-0 Tirsense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
69%
1.11
Draw
17%
8.78
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
Over
63%
1.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.03
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
40%
4-5
30%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Benfica win — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
85%
-16.5pp
17%
Draw
8%
+8.6pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Tirsense EU Bookmakers 9%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
506 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 74%
37.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Tirsense
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.34 xG 0.17
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
504 Passes 242
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 7
26 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2025 Tirsense Tirsense 0-5 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4-0
AWAY Tirsense
6.38 xG 0.17
66% Ball Possession 34%
33 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 2
492 Passes 231
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
62 Box Touches 4
33 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Tirsense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Tirsense 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 66% of the ball to Tirsense's 34%, shots finished 33-5, expected goals 6.38 to 0.17.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Tirsense?

Benfica 4-0 Tirsense in the Portugal - Cup on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Tirsense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Benfica 69%, draw 17%, Tirsense 14%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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