EGS Gafsa 2-3 Etoile Du Sahel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
17%
3.64
Away Pick
56%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.78
Over
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
32%
1.97
2-3
40%
1.8
4-5
20%
6.09
6+
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
36%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Etoile Du Sahel win — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
17%
+10.4pp
17%
Draw
24%
-7.8pp
56%
Away Win
59%
-2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.3pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Du Sahel EU Bookmakers 62%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.20/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.56
-67% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
184 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME EGS Gafsa
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Etoile Du Sahel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
29.12.2024 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa 1-1 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel TUN1
11.11.2023 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel 2-1 HT 1-1 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN1A
POST-MATCH EGS Gafsa vs Etoile Du Sahel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Du Sahel edged past EGS Gafsa 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Etoile Du Sahel as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Etoile Du Sahel led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for EGS Gafsa and 1.50 for Etoile Du Sahel.

What was the final score of EGS Gafsa vs Etoile Du Sahel?

EGS Gafsa 2-3 Etoile Du Sahel in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for EGS Gafsa vs Etoile Du Sahel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Etoile Du Sahel win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split EGS Gafsa 27%, draw 17%, Etoile Du Sahel 56%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Etoile Du Sahel) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Etoile Du Sahel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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