Varbergs 2-1 IK Oddevold — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 23 May 2024

Varbergs
2-1 HT 1-0
IK Oddevold
📅23/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Varbergs vs IK Oddevold Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.61
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.33
X/2
10%
5.68
X/X
17%
4.41
2/1
4%
29.0
2/2
19%
3.94
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.5pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Varbergs v IK Oddevold — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varbergs EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Oddevold EU Bookmakers 38%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.99/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-34% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
POST-MATCH Varbergs vs IK Oddevold
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varbergs nicked a narrow win over IK Oddevold 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Varbergs found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Varbergs vs IK Oddevold?

Varbergs 2-1 IK Oddevold in the Sweden - Superettan on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varbergs vs IK Oddevold?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varbergs win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Varbergs 37%, draw 30%, IK Oddevold 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varbergs) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Varbergs) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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