Alianza Universidad 1-1 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 23 May 2025

📅23/05/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Universidad EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 48%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
0.68/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.90
-35% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
15.6 Crosses 17.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Universidad
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Melgar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.32 xG 2.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
297 Passes 392
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.08.2021 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad PER
28.09.2020 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad PER
06.10.2019 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad 2-1 HT 0-1 Melgar Melgar PER
21.04.2019 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Universidad
1-1
AWAY Melgar
1.85 xG 2.69
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
178 Passes 329
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Alianza Universidad vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Universidad and Melgar shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Melgar at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Alianza Universidad had 38% of the ball to Melgar's 62%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.85 to 2.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Alianza Universidad and 1.75 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Alianza Universidad vs Melgar?

Alianza Universidad 1-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 23/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Universidad vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alianza Universidad 28%, draw 30%, Melgar 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Melgar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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