Kapaz 0-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 23 May 2026

Kapaz
0-1 HT 0-0
Neftçi PFK
📅23/05/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
5.91
Draw
14%
4.62
Away
70%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
10%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
40%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
14%
+2.3pp
13%
Draw
18%
-5.1pp
70%
Away Win
68%
+2.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kapaz v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 72%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
0.71/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.46
-12% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +39%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
258 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
The Meetings
15.02.2026 Kapaz Kapaz 1-3 HT 1-3 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
01.11.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 5-1 HT 2-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.05.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
05.03.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
28.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERK
05.02.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK nicked a narrow win over Kapaz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kapaz and 2.17 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK?

Kapaz 0-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 16%, draw 13%, Neftçi PFK 70%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
23 May 2026
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