Ulinzi Stars 2-1 Mathare United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
11%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulinzi Stars EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Mathare United EU Bookmakers 33%
-23% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.84/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.80
-15% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
283 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulinzi Stars
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Mathare United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.01.2026 Mathare United Mathare United 1-0 HT 1-0 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars KEN
01.12.2024 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 0-0 HT 0-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulinzi Stars
2-1
AWAY Mathare United
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulinzi Stars squeezed past Mathare United 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Ulinzi Stars found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ulinzi Stars had 51% of the ball to Mathare United's 49%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mathare United led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Ulinzi Stars and 0.50 for Mathare United.

What was the final score of Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?

Ulinzi Stars 2-1 Mathare United in the Kenya - Premier League on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ulinzi Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ulinzi Stars 40%, draw 28%, Mathare United 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ulinzi Stars) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ulinzi Stars) ✗ Under 2.5
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