Ekvador 1-2 Venezuela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa America, 23 Jun 2024

Ekvador
1-2 HT 1-0
Venezuela
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Copa America – 2024

Ekvador vs Venezuela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
26%
2.88
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.38
Over 2.5
37%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.4
No
57%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
1.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
14%
7.0
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.87
1/2
3%
66.0
1/X
10%
15.8
X/1
18%
4.01
X/2
13%
7.69
X/X
10%
3.24
2/1
3%
37.5
2/2
7%
7.12
2/X
7%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
+4.6pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.9pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
69%
-6.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
31%
+6.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
38%
+5.0pp
57%
BTTS No
62%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ekvador v Venezuela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezuela EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
+134% / -81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / –
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 70%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
38.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Ekvador vs Venezuela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvador
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Venezuela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 0.77
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
381 Passes 238
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.11.2023 Venezuela Venezuela 0-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
12.11.2021 Ekvador Ekvador 1-0 HT 1-0 Venezuela Venezuela Güney Amerika - DK Elemeler
10.10.2021 Venezuela Venezuela 2-1 HT 1-1 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
21.06.2021 Venezuela Venezuela 2-2 HT 0-1 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
02.06.2019 Venezuela Venezuela 1-1 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
09.06.2017 Venezuela Venezuela 1-1 HT 1-1 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ

Ekvador 1-2 Venezuela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador
1-2
AWAY Venezuela
0.86 xG 1.69
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
178 Passes 420
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 34
17 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ekvador vs Venezuela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venezuela nicked a narrow win over Ekvador 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ekvador at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ekvador had 34% of the ball to Venezuela's 66%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.86 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ekvador and 1.00 for Venezuela.

What was the final score of Ekvador vs Venezuela?

Ekvador 1-2 Venezuela in the Copa America on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Venezuela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvador win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 51%, draw 26%, Venezuela 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ekvador) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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