Chapecoense vs Paysandu Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chapecoense v Paysandu — Team-Based Signals
Chapecoense vs Paysandu Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Chapecoense
BR2
3-2
HT 1-0
Paysandu
BR2
Chapecoense 1-2 Paysandu — Actual Match Statistics
Paysandu squeezed past Chapecoense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Paysandu made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Chapecoense had 45% of the ball to Paysandu's 55%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.42 to 1.06.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chapecoense and 2.00 for Paysandu.
What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Paysandu?
Chapecoense 1-2 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Paysandu?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 38%, draw 28%, Paysandu 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.