Ituano 1-1 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.91
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.8pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -26%
1.00/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.41
-14% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
22.6 Crosses 16.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Brusque
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.09 xG 1.25
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
195 Passes 434
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2022 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 1-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
11.06.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
30.10.2020 Ituano Ituano 3-1 HT 2-1 Brusque Brusque BRE3
30.08.2020 Brusque Brusque 2-0 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
1-1
AWAY Brusque
1.72 xG 2.61
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 9
289 Passes 337
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 24
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano and Brusque shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ituano at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Ituano had 47% of the ball to Brusque's 53%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.72 to 2.61.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ituano had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ituano and 0.75 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Brusque?

Ituano 1-1 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ituano 46%, draw 27%, Brusque 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ituano), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ituano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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