Forge 2-1 Valour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 23 Jun 2024

Forge
2-1 HT 2-0
Valour
📅23/06/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Forge vs Valour Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.33
6+ Goals
8%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 26% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Forge v Valour — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Valour EU Bookmakers 22%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +4%
1.56/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.69
+8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
424 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.2 Crosses 18.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

Forge vs Valour Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Valour
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 0.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
360 Passes 286
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
17.09.2023 Valour Valour 2-3 HT 1-1 Forge Forge CAPL
16.07.2023 Forge Forge 1-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour KAPL
17.06.2023 Valour Valour 2-0 HT 1-0 Forge Forge KAPL
13.05.2023 Forge Forge 3-2 HT 1-1 Valour Valour CAPL
04.09.2022 Valour Valour 1-0 HT 0-0 Forge Forge CAPL

Forge 2-1 Valour — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
2-1
AWAY Valour
2.42 xG 1.58
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
388 Passes 289
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Forge vs Valour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge squeezed past Valour 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Forge as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Forge had 56% of the ball to Valour's 44%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.42 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Forge and 1.50 for Valour.

What was the final score of Forge vs Valour?

Forge 2-1 Valour in the Kanada - Premier League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Valour?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Forge 50%, draw 27%, Valour 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forge) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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