Forge 2-1 Valour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

Forge
2-1 HT 0-0
Valour
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Forge vs Valour Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
47%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.4
6+ Goals
8%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
27%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Forge v Valour — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Valour EU Bookmakers 16%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.70/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.56
+5% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -36%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 71%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
21.0 Crosses 16.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.1

Forge vs Valour Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valour
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.13 xG 0.80
55% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
346 Passes 284
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Valour Valour 2-3 HT 1-1 Forge Forge CAPL
16.07.2023 Forge Forge 1-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour KAPL
17.06.2023 Valour Valour 2-0 HT 1-0 Forge Forge KAPL
13.05.2023 Forge Forge 3-2 HT 1-1 Valour Valour CAPL
04.09.2022 Valour Valour 1-0 HT 0-0 Forge Forge CAPL
01.09.2022 Valour Valour 1-0 HT 1-0 Forge Forge CAPL

Forge 2-1 Valour — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
2-1
AWAY Valour
1.82 xG 1.29
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 5
442 Passes 217
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Forge vs Valour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge squeezed past Valour 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Forge as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Forge had 62% of the ball to Valour's 38%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.82 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valour led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Forge and 1.50 for Valour.

What was the final score of Forge vs Valour?

Forge 2-1 Valour in the Kanada - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Valour?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Forge 58%, draw 22%, Valour 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forge) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Forge) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CAPL More Kanada - Premier League
27 Apr 2024
02:00 York United vs Vancouver FC Analysis →
20:00 HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa Analysis →