HFX Wanderers 1-3 Atletico Ottawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.39
6+ Goals
6%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 35% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.9pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Ottawa EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.92/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.35
+15% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
16.6 Crosses 11.2
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HFX Wanderers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Ottawa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.18
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
473 Passes 325
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa CAPL
23.07.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
04.06.2023 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 2-0 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
15.04.2023 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 1-1 HT 1-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
01.10.2022 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa CAPL
18.08.2022 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 3-2 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HFX Wanderers
1-3
AWAY Atletico Ottawa
0.94 xG 2.21
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
304 Passes 414
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Ottawa saw off HFX Wanderers 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was HFX Wanderers at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HFX Wanderers had 45% of the ball to Atletico Ottawa's 55%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.94 to 2.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Ottawa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for HFX Wanderers and 1.67 for Atletico Ottawa.

What was the final score of HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa?

HFX Wanderers 1-3 Atletico Ottawa in the Kanada - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a HFX Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split HFX Wanderers 41%, draw 29%, Atletico Ottawa 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (HFX Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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