Brisbane Roar 2-4 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - FFA Cup, 23 Jul 2024

Brisbane Roar
2-4 HT 1-1
Perth Glory
📅23/07/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Australia - FFA Cup – 2024

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.43
Over 2.5
52%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.35
2-3 Goals
34%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.64
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.35 — our 29% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.31
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
15%
4.5
X/2
10%
8.5
X/X
14%
6.18
2/1
6%
20.15
2/2
17%
5.5
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-10.5pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.4pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Perth Glory
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 0.93
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
402 Passes 356
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-2 HT 1-2 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
26.11.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
26.02.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
10.01.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
19.03.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-4 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
20.02.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Brisbane Roar 2-4 Perth Glory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
2-4
AWAY Perth Glory
1.21 xG 3.07
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 10
8 Corners 7
469 Passes 264
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
35 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perth Glory beat Brisbane Roar 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 62% of the ball to Perth Glory's 38%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.21 to 3.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.67 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?

Brisbane Roar 2-4 Perth Glory in the Australia - FFA Cup on 23/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 41%, draw 26%, Perth Glory 33%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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