Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 23 Jul 2026

📅23/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.22
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.29
No
45%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.53
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
2.66
6+ Goals
16%
7.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
3%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
78%
-9.8pp
19%
Draw
16%
+3.3pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
40%
+15.0pp
45%
BTTS No
60%
-15.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Dukagjini EU Bookmakers 9%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
3.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/6.00
+21% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -62%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
454 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 72%
41.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1-0
AWAY Dukagjini
2.47 xG 0.74
24 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
565 Passes 179
39 Box Touches 6
35 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Dukagjini
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano squeezed past Dukagjini 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 2.47 to 0.74 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lugano's control.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Dukagjini?

Lugano 1-0 Dukagjini in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 23/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Dukagjini?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Lugano 68%, draw 19%, Dukagjini 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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