Rijeka 1-0 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 23 Jul 2026

Rijeka
1-0 HT 0-0
Derry City
📅23/07/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
UEFA Europa Conference League – 2026/2027

Rijeka vs Derry City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.25
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.16
No
49%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
2.77
6+ Goals
11%
7.97
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 25% vs market 17.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
13%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
75%
-8.2pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.3pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.6pp
49%
BTTS No
58%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rijeka v Derry City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 11%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
3.39/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.41
+49% / +100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +56%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Rijeka 1-0 Derry City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
1-0
AWAY Derry City
14 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka squeezed past Derry City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, shots finished 14-5.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Derry City?

Rijeka 1-0 Derry City in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 23/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 67%, draw 17%, Derry City 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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