Modena 2-1 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
5.34
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.13
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
11%
4.4
X/2
14%
6.62
X/X
11%
3.65
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
10%
5.55
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -10%
1.24/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.22
-16% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.6 Crosses 15.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
0W-5D-1L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.42 xG 0.82
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 Passes 316
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
01.04.2024 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
21.10.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
06.05.2023 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
11.12.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 4-1 HT 2-0 Modena Modena İTB
07.05.2022 Modena Modena 3-3 HT 1-3 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTC
23.04.2016 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
2-1
AWAY FC Bari 1908
3.08 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
227 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Modena vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena edged past FC Bari 1908 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Modena as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Modena had 42% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 58%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 3.08 to 1.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Modena's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Bari 1908 led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Modena and 1.83 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Modena vs FC Bari 1908?

Modena 2-1 FC Bari 1908 in the Italy - Serie B on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Modena 44%, draw 26%, FC Bari 1908 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Modena) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Modena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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