Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Barito Putera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.64
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.8pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Barito Putera EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -11%
1.89/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.60
+8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Barito Putera
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
415 Passes 290
06.12.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 HT 0-1 Barito Putera Barito Putera ENDL1
14.03.2022 Barito Putera Barito Putera 1-1 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
04.12.2021 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-0 HT 1-0 Barito Putera Barito Putera ENDL1
28.09.2019 Barito Putera Barito Putera 1-0 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs Barito Putera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya squeezed past Barito Putera 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Persebaya Surabaya as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.00 for Barito Putera.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs Barito Putera?

Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Barito Putera in the Indonesia League 1 on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs Barito Putera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 54%, draw 20%, Barito Putera 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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