Kocaelispor 1-0 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.7
X/1
18%
3.62
X/2
9%
10.4
X/X
13%
4.8
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
10%
8.92
2/X
6%
17.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 21%
-16% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.50/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.20
-23% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 73%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.8 Crosses 16.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.62 xG 0.58
55% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
316 Passes 223
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
12 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
06.10.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
01.05.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
10.12.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
1-0
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.95 xG 0.32
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
368 Passes 176
81% Pass Accuracy 65%
14 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor edged past Erzurumspor FK 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 62% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 38%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.95 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Kocaelispor and 0.50 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Kocaelispor 1-0 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 49%, draw 27%, Erzurumspor FK 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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