Emelec 3-1 Tecnico Universitario — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.4pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Tecnico Universitario EU Bookmakers 27%
-20% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.25/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.23
-47% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 70%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
22.7 Crosses 15.2
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Tecnico Universitario
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.93 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 Passes 246
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.09.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKVK
08.04.2024 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 1-1 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
18.08.2023 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
20.03.2023 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 1-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
22.10.2022 Emelec Emelec 3-1 HT 1-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
29.05.2022 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 1-1 HT 0-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
3-1
AWAY Tecnico Universitario
0.56 xG 0.37
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
251 Passes 365
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 14
8 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec saw off Tecnico Universitario 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Emelec as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Emelec had 42% of the ball to Tecnico Universitario's 58%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.56 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Emelec and 0.50 for Tecnico Universitario.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario?

Emelec 3-1 Tecnico Universitario in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Emelec 44%, draw 29%, Tecnico Universitario 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emelec) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Emelec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →