FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Krylya Sovetov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.44
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
11%
5.4
X/2
10%
5.9
X/X
10%
4.77
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
21%
3.89
2/X
10%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.3pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.18/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.33
-7% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
18.4 Crosses 19.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 1.25
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 Passes 349
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2024 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
04.10.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-3 HT 0-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
30.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUK
22.07.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 0-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
19.03.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
27.08.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 1-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-1
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
0.77 xG 0.48
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
272 Passes 216
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny and Krylya Sovetov shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 54% of the ball to Krylya Sovetov's 46%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.77 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 0.83 for Krylya Sovetov.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Krylya Sovetov in the Russia - Premier League on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov?

Before kick-off our model rated an Krylya Sovetov win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 36%, draw 26%, Krylya Sovetov 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) ✓ Under 2.5
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