Birmingham Legion 1-0 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-13.8pp
26%
Draw
18%
+7.3pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.3pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
2.09/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/2.13
+15% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
16.6 Crosses 12.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Miami FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.54 xG 1.03
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
352 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
25.09.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-2 HT 0-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
04.05.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 3-1 HT 2-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
04.09.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
05.05.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
24.06.2021 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
1-0
AWAY Miami FC
1.26 xG 0.46
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
512 Passes 384
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion nicked a narrow win over Miami FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Birmingham Legion as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 57% of the ball to Miami FC's 43%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.26 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Birmingham Legion and 1.00 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs Miami FC?

Birmingham Legion 1-0 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 56%, draw 26%, Miami FC 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham Legion) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →