Hoffenheim II 5-0 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.51
Over Pick
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
39%
4-5
24%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.6pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.6pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim II EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +1%
2.64/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.99
+35% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim II
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 2-0 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
19.09.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
18.04.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
13.09.2022 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 1-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
02.04.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 2-2 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
08.10.2021 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 0-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim II vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim II cruised past Mainz 05 II 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hoffenheim II as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hoffenheim II and 1.50 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim II vs Mainz 05 II?

Hoffenheim II 5-0 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim II vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim II win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim II 50%, draw 20%, Mainz 05 II 30%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim II), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim II) ✓ Over 2.5
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