Hoffenheim II 2-0 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.15
Over Pick
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
41%
4-5
24%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim II EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 24%
-11% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.77/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/2.03
+42% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim II
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
18.04.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
13.09.2022 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 1-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
02.04.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 2-2 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
08.10.2021 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II 0-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
06.02.2021 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim II
2-0
AWAY Mainz 05 II
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim II vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim II got the better of Mainz 05 II 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hoffenheim II as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hoffenheim II had 52% of the ball to Mainz 05 II's 48%, shots finished 18-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hoffenheim II and 1.50 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim II vs Mainz 05 II?

Hoffenheim II 2-0 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim II vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim II win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim II 52%, draw 23%, Mainz 05 II 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim II) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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