Mushuc Runa 1-2 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-6.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.1pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.52/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
+68% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
270 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-0D-5L
AWAY El Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.39
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
213 Passes 170
70% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
08.10.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
07.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.09.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
17.09.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
18.10.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
1-2
AWAY El Nacional
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional edged past Mushuc Runa 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; El Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 52% of the ball to El Nacional's 48%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.50 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional?

Mushuc Runa 1-2 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Cup on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 34%, draw 30%, El Nacional 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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