El Nacional 1-0 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-3.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
1.76/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.56
+28% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 74%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
24.7 Crosses 17.9
3.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.07 xG 0.99
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
198 Passes 215
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
07.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.09.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
17.09.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
18.10.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
23.02.2020 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
1-0
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.39 xG 0.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 20
12 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
201 Passes 158
64% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional squeezed past Mushuc Runa 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, El Nacional had 53% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 47%, shots finished 22-20, expected goals 2.39 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Nacional's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Nacional and 0.83 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa?

El Nacional 1-0 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 52%, draw 24%, Mushuc Runa 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ BTTS No
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