El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Mushuc Runa — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Mushuc Runa
EKV1
0-1
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
3-2
El Nacional
EKVK
1-0
HT 1-0
Mushuc Runa
EKVK
2-1
HT 1-0
Mushuc Runa
EKV1
1-1
HT 1-1
El Nacional
EKV1
El Nacional 1-0 Mushuc Runa — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional squeezed past Mushuc Runa 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, El Nacional had 53% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 47%, shots finished 22-20, expected goals 2.39 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Nacional's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Nacional and 0.83 for Mushuc Runa.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa?
El Nacional 1-0 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa?
Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 52%, draw 24%, Mushuc Runa 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.