Macara 0-1 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 May 2024

Macara
0-1 HT 0-0
Independiente Del Valle
📅26/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Macara vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.65
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
56%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
41%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+5.4pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.4pp
56%
Away Win
58%
-1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.8pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macara v Independiente Del Valle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 62%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
0.96/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.74
-28% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +29%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 81%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
21.0 Crosses 21.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Macara vs Independiente Del Valle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.09 xG 1.45
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
176 Passes 415
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.09.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
10.05.2022 Macara Macara 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
02.08.2021 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 4-0 HT 2-0 Macara Macara EKV1
28.02.2021 Macara Macara 3-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
21.12.2020 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
18.08.2020 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 4-4 HT 4-1 Macara Macara EKV1

Macara 0-1 Independiente Del Valle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
0-1
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.53 xG 2.04
27% Ball Possession 73%
4 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 10
146 Passes 503
71% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 37
6 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macara vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle squeezed past Macara 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Macara had 27% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 73%, shots finished 4-24, expected goals 0.53 to 2.04 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macara and 1.83 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Macara vs Independiente Del Valle?

Macara 0-1 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Macara 24%, draw 20%, Independiente Del Valle 56%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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