Porto II 2-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.75
Over
43%
1.93
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.96
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
20%
3.95
6+
9%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.96 — our 31% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Porto II The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra The Market 30%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Great
1.67 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.07
1.23 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.40
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Bad Defensevs comparable teams Average
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.9 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mafra
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.55 xG 1.58
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
318 Passes 289
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Porto II Porto II 1-1 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
02.09.2023 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 2-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
05.03.2023 Porto II Porto II 1-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
10.09.2022 Mafra Mafra 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.02.2022 Mafra Mafra 3-2 HT 2-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.09.2021 Porto II Porto II 3-1 HT 2-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
2-1
AWAY Mafra
1.78 xG 0.39
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
392 Passes 200
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Porto II vs Mafra
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Porto II came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Mafra 2-1. The 0-1 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Porto II as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Under the surface, possession split 61% to 39% in Porto II's favour, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.78 to 0.39 — on chances created, Porto II won this by more than the scoreboard admits.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Porto II against 1.33 for Mafra.

Porto II vs Mafra Result & Final Score

Porto II 2-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Porto II vs Mafra Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Porto II 41%, draw 27%, Mafra 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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