Porto II 1-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +1%
1.80/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.30
+24% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.2 Crosses 18.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mafra
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 1.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
337 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2023 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 2-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
05.03.2023 Porto II Porto II 1-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
10.09.2022 Mafra Mafra 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.02.2022 Mafra Mafra 3-2 HT 2-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.09.2021 Porto II Porto II 3-1 HT 2-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
29.03.2021 Mafra Mafra 0-4 HT 0-3 Porto II Porto II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
1-1
AWAY Mafra
3.59 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 0
315 Passes 278
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II and Mafra shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Porto II at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Porto II had 54% of the ball to Mafra's 46%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 3.59 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Porto II and 1.17 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Mafra?

Porto II 1-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Porto II 42%, draw 28%, Mafra 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Porto II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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