Paços De Ferreira 1-2 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
42%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.49
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.64
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.7pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.2pp
41%
Away Win
34%
+7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 37%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.10/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.27
+9% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.2 Crosses 18.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Maritimo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.11 xG 1.02
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
331 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
15.04.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 3-1 HT 2-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
28.10.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-1 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
09.04.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 2-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
28.11.2021 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
20.07.2021 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 0-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1-2
AWAY Maritimo
1.07 xG 0.48
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
437 Passes 172
88% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo edged past Paços De Ferreira 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 66% of the ball to Maritimo's 34%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.07 to 0.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Paços De Ferreira.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.50 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Maritimo?

Paços De Ferreira 1-2 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 34%, draw 24%, Maritimo 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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