AVS 2-1 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.69
2-3 Goals
45%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
0.96/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.21
-4% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.7 Crosses 20.6
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 3.32
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
286 Passes 341
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
6 Crosses 20
6 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-2 HT 0-1 AVS AVS POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
2-1
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.13 xG 1.34
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
243 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AVS vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS squeezed past Uniao De Leiria 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AVS as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AVS had 41% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 59%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.13 to 1.34.

What was the final score of AVS vs Uniao De Leiria?

AVS 2-1 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split AVS 42%, draw 25%, Uniao De Leiria 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AVS) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AVS) ✗ Under 2.5
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