Neftçi PFK 2-1 Zira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+6.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Zira EU Bookmakers 39%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
0.61/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.73
-49% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +57%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Zira
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
15.09.2024 Zira Zira 2-0 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
20.04.2024 Zira Zira 3-1 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
18.02.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 1-0 Zira Zira AZERS
03.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
23.09.2023 Zira Zira 1-1 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
01.04.2023 Zira Zira 1-1 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Zira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK nicked a narrow win over Zira 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.17 for Zira.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Zira?

Neftçi PFK 2-1 Zira in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Zira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 41%, draw 28%, Zira 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
23 Nov 2024
16:00 Sebail FK vs Karabağ Analysis →