Sebail FK 0-3 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.78
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
62%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
38%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
10%
+6.8pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.4pp
63%
Away Win
74%
-11.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 78%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +8%
0.85/2.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.44/0.61
+62% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -16%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 467 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
14.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
12.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-1 HT 2-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.05.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
11.03.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ ran out comfortable winners over Sebail FK 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sebail FK and 2.33 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Sebail FK 0-3 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 17%, draw 21%, Karabağ 63%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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23 Nov 2024
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