Karabağ 2-1 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.22
Draw
23%
5.71
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.89
Over 2.5
53%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
77%
-17.4pp
23%
Draw
14%
+8.4pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
31%
+15.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
69%
-15.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 11%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
2.64/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/2.29
+28% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
370 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sebail FK
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
12.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-1 HT 2-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.05.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
11.03.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
24.12.2022 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ nicked a narrow win over Sebail FK 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Karabağ and 0.67 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Sebail FK?

Karabağ 2-1 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 60%, draw 23%, Sebail FK 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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