Fluminense 2-2 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.24
6+ Goals
8%
32.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.37 — our 38% vs market 36.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
17%
4.21
X/2
11%
7.23
X/X
17%
3.85
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
9%
6.18
2/X
5%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.43/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.49
-3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
19.9 Crosses 16.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.09 xG 1.79
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
446 Passes 199
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
03.09.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
29.04.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 4-2 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
11.09.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
18.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 0-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRK
29.07.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-2
AWAY Fortaleza
0.95 xG 1.18
74% Ball Possession 26%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
617 Passes 182
91% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense and Fortaleza shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fluminense had 74% of the ball to Fortaleza's 26%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.95 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fluminense and 1.33 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Fortaleza?

Fluminense 2-2 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 45%, draw 29%, Fortaleza 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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