Fortaleza 1-0 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.4pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -23%
1.64/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.55
-8% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.1 Crosses 15.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.76 xG 1.21
38% Ball Possession 62%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
228 Passes 417
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
29.04.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 4-2 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
11.09.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
18.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 0-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRK
29.07.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
22.05.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-0
AWAY Fluminense
2.03 xG 0.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
241 Passes 385
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Fluminense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza had 42% of the ball to Fluminense's 58%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.03 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortaleza's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortaleza and 1.50 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Fluminense?

Fortaleza 1-0 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 51%, draw 27%, Fluminense 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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